Monday, April 28, 2008

Alas, No Hat Trick

Sometimes I wonder how much of the difference between a competent player and a truly successful one is belief. As in thinking something like, "I know I'm going to win this tourney or take down this pot." Perhaps that little bit of extra confidence is what makes a hot player run a bluff at the right time, while a cold player makes the wrong one.

A lot of players swear by feel and streaks and rushes and the like, while others go by the pure math. I'm torn between the two. Numbers are numbers, of course, and I trust in math enough to know that there are few things that can't be explained by mathematical anomaly. Still, there's always that tingling speck of doubt: In a quantum sense, can believing in something happening give it just the slightest more chance of becoming so? That's what confidence is, isn't it?

I can't answer that. I believe in math and probabilities, but I've also seen some things in my life that math alone can't explain.

Back to more mundane thoughts.

It wasn't for the lack of trying, but I couldn't make it three in a row in baby MTTs. I finished something like 29th of 57 in the next one, then took a sixth (of 103) in one soon after. The following night saw me crash out of a couple of MTTs well short of the money.

Sunday found me with a couple of hours with which to try again. In addition to one more bustout, I snagged a third and yet another first for a nice continuation of my recent run. I played eight small MTTs (60-105 players each) over a five-day stretch, with five final tables, including a third and three firsts. All this followed an extended run of at least two months where I did virtually nothing in MTTs. Dozens of them, and it was perhaps a part of why I didn't play at all for about three weeks.

Today's word is syzygy. When things are running well, it indeed feels like the planets are in alignment.

Friday, April 25, 2008

B-2-B

Poker is teh streakaments. Had a couple of hours today in which to relax, and decided to try another small MTT over at poker.com. Smaller entry fee, but I took down the thing, making me two-fer-two for the week.



I'd like to tell you how I crushed the field in this one, but I'd be lying. I had to suck out twice in the early/middle stages just to stay alive. The second suckout got me from endangered to healthy, though; I pushed UTG w/ A-Kx, got a call three seats to my left, and then an all-in re-raise from the cutoff, which was called as well. The re-raiser showed K-K, which was great until I sucked out an ace on the flop. Odd was that the third player made the call with 10-10, and thus departed. Seemed like a hand he could've gotten away from. But I was all of a sudden in the top five in chips with the triple-up.

The one play I was pleased with let me take out the second-place player and gave me a commanding chip lead -- even though I would give a bunch of those chips back later in the final table.

I was in the small blind with an all but worthless 6-3 of diamonds, but there were two limpers before it came around to me. 7:1 to see a flop? (Assuming the BB doesn't jack it up, and he didn't.) Sure. I was back up to over 30 BBs at this point, and a couple of the other deep stacks were in it as well.

Flop comes a heavenly 5-4-2 rainbow... and I bet out for over three fourths of the pot. An aggressive player I'd taken a couple of pots from earlier barely hesitates before pushing all in with 9-9, which was toast barring a runner-runner catch that didn't show. In these low- to medium-dollar tourneys, betting out with a made hand on an all-small board is usually gold, because these players get so trap-conscious that a check-call or check-raise doesn't drag the big pots as often as you'd think. This player was a bit too aggressive but fairly decent, and I think he could have gotten away from his 9-9 if I'd slow-played it, because he had to put me on top pair -- maybe with the straight draw -- when I bet out. As it was I got his chips.

I gave them back to a different player soon enough, due to overplaying A-K when I didn't need to, and then I settled down and tried to play good positional poker as we went from five players to four and then to three. This did wonders for my chip stack. I saved my third suckout for the final hand, when I had a sizable lead and re-raised the short-stacked button all in with A-8. Whoops! He flipped A-10 and would have jumped ahead of me, but a donkalicious eight popped on the river.

Now, if I can just make it three-for-three....

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Woot!!

Warning! Thinly disguised brag post! And yes, it's been a while....

Wanna know how you can tell you're a true "poker media" professional? Okay, maybe it's an oxymoron, but let's run with it anyway. The answer... it's when you can't find time to play the game, despite the fact that you're immersed in it on a daily basis. Still, I've managed to visit online sites twice this past week, which was two more than the last three weeks combined.

First, thanks again to Bodog for the ongoing Bodonkey (a/k/a Bodog Bloggerment) series, which this week featured not one but two guest pros in David Williams and Jean-Robert Bellande. I had DW on my right for a while before he chose to mix it up and was bounced. Must've been the pizza delivery guy. Odd story, Part 1: DW got all the chips in pre-flop with A-4x, from EP. Odd story, Part 2: He actually started out ahead, since the other player made the call with K-Q. A queen flopped and a bounty was awarded. I bounced myself out a while later trying to make a re-steal from the big blind, against the chip leader in the small blind, who I thought was trying to push me around. He got my chips.

Tonight I fired up the poker.com software for the first time in several weeks, just in time for the nightly $2,500 Guarantee. Darned if I didn't take the thing down:



So it wasn't a total washout of a month for poker after all. What was odd in this one is how I won it. I am -- and you can take this to the bank -- a lousy tourney frontrunner. I've won this and several other tourneys on the site multiple times each, and never once have I taken a commanding lead and ridden it through to the end. My victories have always been come-from-behind-jobs, and on the occasions I've had big leads in the middle stages, I've never closed the deal.

Until tonight. I moved near the lead with about 30 of the 77 starters still around, and then into the lead with about 17 players leading, after convincing a LAGgy player that I was really bluffing with a sizable overbet after a 7-high flop, something like 6,500 into a 4,000 pot. I'd made a standard 3x raise pre-flop from the button, and he decided to defend with J-7x. Fortunately, I had aces and he bit... hard. I stacked up some more when I pushed hard with A-K on a K-high flop against a player who had K-J and couldn't make himself release top pair. I was in the big blind in that hand and put in a healthy raise before the flop, but the guy apparently loved his K-J. Me, I can't stand the hand, and will only play it for cheap and in position.

From there it was a bit of bullying the short stacks as the bubble loomed (chipping up from maybe 50,000 to 65,000 there), and then riding out a cold spell of about six laps once the final table began.

Soon enough I picked up a few hands again and kept getting paid off. A fun poker night is when you keep getting the chips in ahead and your cards hold up time after time. That was this one in a nutshell. No one got close to me until only four players remained, and my rush continued right on through to the end. Third place went out when we both hit a flop hard, me with top two and him with bottom two. I had a 5:1 chip advantage starting heads-up play, and two hands later this player pushed with an open-ended draw and I called with top pair. Again, it held up.

Sometimes poker runs your way, if only for a short while. Such was this night.

Thursday night I'm going to show up on Rounders Radio as Lou Krieger's guest. We'll probably do what we've done when I was on his earlier Hold'em Radio show with he and Amy, and that's go free-form and talk about whatever subject pops into mind. Ad lib! Ad lib!

Monday, April 21, 2008

Busy, But Not with Poker

Been a spell since I've been here, good readers. Life moves on. I have a couple of major projects I'm working on, had a friends/family weekend that I had to work into the mix, and of course had the regular work as well. Been having iffy health lately as well, which adds to the stress of the whole mix.

Poker for me -- in terms of playing -- has been all but non-existent for the past three weeks. While up north, meaning northern Wisconsin, I accompanied my brother-in-law to the semi-deserted Lac du Flambeau (Lake of the Torches) casino for about three hours of $1/2. I went down about $70 early and fought back to finish only down $20 for the session. I could never hit that draw card or flop that disguised set and put a hurt on an over-aggressive player, of which there were several.

The night's personal highlight had to be when I made three straight instantaneous and correct reads on a regular in the casino's game. First time, he wasn't involved but his language said he had a hand. Same thing the second time, and I folded out top pair to trips, which he showed. Third time he had a different tell, on a board that was something like 6-6-10-A-3. I knew for darn sure he didn't have a six or an ace or a pair of tens, and no straights or flushes were available. I was in the hand with a ridiculous 10-2 from the button, in honor of Doyle, and I was happy enough to make a river call, figuring him for his own ten or something like 8-8 or 9-9. He showed K-10, but the ace played, and I swiped half the pot with crap, thanks to the read I had. So the Joe Navarro session I sat through has already been worth about eight bucks.

I spent some hours sitting at my sister and brother-in-law's place, working on stories with the TV in the background and the wildlife wandering by just outside the window to my left. Every day brought visitors, but these photos were among the highlights:





I didn't have my camera handy at one other moment when the wild turkey and four different deer were all within 20 or so feet of one another, feeding on corn.

The last of the snow melted a couple of days later, but the lakes were still iced over as of Friday -- and people were out there ice fishing in sweaters and/or light jackets. Late spring.

Monday, April 07, 2008

The Caesars Indiana Bad Beat

Last time out, I mentioned that I'd spent a quick two days plus at Caesars Indiana for some poker doings. This time, it's the tale of the bad beat, and since it didn't specifically have to do with poker, it's safe for the telling.

After about 12 hours of activities and three or four more doing some late night copywriting and editing ($10.99 for 24 hours of high-speed internet connectivity was the going rate) I finally tumbled into bed around two or so with a massive sore throat and a hope for a few hours of sleep. No such luck. I tossed and turned, turned and tossed, and just when I finally managed to doze off...

BAMBAMBAMBAMBAMBAMBAMBAM

"Open the fucking door!" It's coming from a couple of doors down, by the sound.

I hear more shouting, and then...

BAMBAMBAMBAMBAMBAMBAMBAM

It's 3:57 a.m. by my hotel-room clock when the first bangs occur, and this on the seventh floor of the Caesars Indiana hotel??!? It keeps going on for five, six, seven minutes, and it's just not stopping. The shouting was bad enough, but the banging was so hard that my bed literally shook from the vibrations. There is a security guard posted just yards from the elevator doors on the ground floor, and he could be up there in 45 seconds, tops. Has no one called this crap in? Well, I didn't. Guess that answers that. Damn rich drunks. Finally it ends, or I just pass out from the fatigue. Couldn't say for sure.

There were a few recognizable poker names at the event I was attending. Next morning, I'm idly chatting with Mark Seif about various small stuff as the day's poker doings begin and it occurs to me to ask him if he'd heard the ruckus from hours earlier. I figured he was probably on my floor, since I already knew Paul Wasicka was, as I'd ridden down in the 'vator with Wasicka the morning prior.

"Yeah, what the hell was that?" says Seif, or something similar.

I tell him about the rotating drunks and the slamming doors. I ask him where he was, and it turns out he was way down at the other end of the hall. It's a long hall, since the hotel is a tall, narrow, single-wing affair that must be a hundred yards long from one end to the other. Seif was 50 or 60 yards down and he got woken up by the door-banging drunks as well. I say to Mark, "I almost called security on them."

Mark's reply: "You should've."

Turned out it was my second drunk encounter in two days at the place, too. The first one happened the day before when I shared an elevator ride down to the lobby with a middle-aged couple and their two or three nightclub-age daughters. Dad was potted, so reeking from some sweet booze that I had to turn away from him in the elevator. He even mentioned that he'd had a couple! Thanks for sharing, kind sir! I couldn't have figured it out by myself.

And, he and his clan were headed -to- the casino, not from it. Or rather, the "vessel," as the intercom informs the gamblers as they walk across the metal planking to the moored barge where the casino is housed.

Interesting place. The complex has at least a couple of nightclubs, one of which had long lines of women waiting to gain entry each night. No guys, just girls, and in a wide range of age from 18 to 45. All dressed like they were going to the Elizabeth, Indiana version of PURE... which, come to think of it, they probably were. No specific comment on some of the outfits I saw, except to say I think some of the women consulted drag queens for their wardrobe choices.

By the way, I mentioned the word "boonies" in my last post as describing the casino's location. I think reading between the lines of the official directions to the casino from the Caesars Indiana site verifies that. As they say it:

Directions to Caesars

* Take I-64 west of Louisville to exit 123 in New Albany, IN.
* Turn right at the bottom of the ramp.
* Pass through 2 stop lights. At the stop sign turn right (south) on Main St. (Indiana State Road 111).
* Indiana SR 111 will split to a "Y." At the split bear left and proceed across the railroad crossing. Caesars Indiana Resort is approximately 8 miles ahead.


Boonies! As I mentioned in a Skype chat to Logan, one of the PN writers, they left off the line saying, "If you hit the pig ranch you've gone too far."

Thursday, April 03, 2008

Caesars Indiana

A short trip to Caesars Indiana for poker doings has left me a bit under the weather, so apologies for yet another delayed post. My quick three-day jaunt left me exhausted and resulted in a quick trip to a "doc in the box" upon my return. More to follow on that count, I'm sure.

But as for Caesars, I hadn't quite realized how out in the boonies it is, off to the southwest of Louisville across the Ohio River into southern Indiana. It's a half-hour drive from Louisville despite being ten miles or less from the city as the crow flies, because there aren't any bridges across the Ohio in the direction where Caesars Indiana lies. Instead, Louisvillians have to head to the northwest to the bridge at New Albany, Indiana, and then back down the west side of the Ohio, which turns southward not far west of Louisville.

You know it's a trip to nowhere when you're on a two-lane county highway with a steady flow of traffic both ways, and the county highway even features a "Y" intersection on the way south. Caesars Indiana boasts an Elizabeth, IN zip code, despite the fact that there's three or four closer hamlets to the casino itself. But as one travels down Cty. Hwy. 111, one notices this edifice looming closer. It's Caesars, alright, stuck on a land tract opposite the highway from the river at a spot where the highway itself flows near the water.

The water itself was plenty high before my trip, so high that the casino itself was closed for two or three days. The bottom floor of the parking ramp was closed and the elevators up and down in the parking ramp were still shut down. One of the workers there told me that the Army Corps of Engineers had ordered the casino shutdown because the barge itself that the casino proper is engineered upon --- despite it being some distance from the river proper --- had started to float of its moorings in the flood.

Initial impressions on the layout? Caesars, or rather Harrah's Entertainment, must have gotten a good price on the land. For what there is here for a casino/resort complex, the place sprawls... to the point of creating some lengthy walks at times for its visitors. What's funniest, perhaps, is the nine-story hotel built at the rear of the complex. Floors eight and nine are the key-card-only suites, and I was lucky enough to pull Floor Seven, with the money view to the east. The west side looks directly into a large bluffside immediately behind the hotel to the west. East looks out over the Ohio --- to the strip-mined hillside across the river and the smelting plant just a bit to the north. That's all you see except for the parking ramp and casino rooftops below.

Like I said, they got a good price on the land.

But inside, the place is all Caesars, or perhaps faux Caesars, since it's not quite possible to do the totality of the Vegas Caesars experience in a setting like this. The great Vegas Caesars maze of shops and slot banks and restaurants and clubs turns into something more like a mini-mall here, if indeed a nice one. The casino operations are totally separate, of course, and are a -hike- from the rest of the resort. I spent much of my days in a second floor conference room in the business center above the mall/restaurant area,and even that was a longish walk from the hotel. Seriously --- the longest of the hallways from the hotel to the rest of the complex features not one but two people-movers, like those found in airports. Gotta like the "Global Citizens! Attention, please!" call over the loudspeakers when one reaches the end of the people-movers though; nice touch.

Entertainment choices? They put some big acts on, here, but it's pure heartland --- no rap or alternative to be found. The banners I saw advertised Tanya Tucker, the Doobie Brothers and Sawyer Brown. I'd guess that's a fairly typical selection.

Poker? It's on the bottom level of the four-level casino, three levels of which were open during my visit. While I was there for poker doings, I only had a chance to sneak in one "freelance" session of my own, that the evening of my arrival. I was tired after my seven-hour drive and didn't want to think too hard. So I played $4/8 limit. I left up almost $200, despite missing at least one value bet. The players at my table weren't good --- unless you consider cold-calling with K-9o from middle position a good play --- and I caught a couple of pairs of queens that held. I did snag an extra bet late in the session from a new player who I correctly pegged as having the need to fire at any pot not already fired at someone else. On that hand, I had A-Q in the BB and let him carry the action throughout after catching an A-high flop. When all was done he showed K-9 for poop; I'd only called his river bluff (instead of check-raising) trying for an overcall from a third player in the hand, because that guy didn't have much, either. Sometimes it works.

Good session, for what it was. That said, the attention of a lot of the players was focused on another table, where Paul 'Kwickfish' Wasicka was relaxing and playing some $1/2 NL.

More next time.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Playing the Bodonkey TV Table

Caught the news late that Josh Arieh would be playing this week's Bodonkey, but after a longish day with no good news stories I decided I'd log on myself and have some fun. Darned if I didn't catch the TV table, with Josh on my immediate left. Gary Cox and Dave (Yestbay) and a couple of others I recognized where there as well, and I did my best to yak it up.

There was a $100 bounty on Arieh's head, which 'Abby17' claimed after Josh decided to mix it up fairly early and lost a race with 7-7 against A-Q. That'll cement the "bloggers are donkeys" image a bit, as will the fact that Josh lost not one, but two, pots to Hammer players. Though, to be honest, knowing a bit about Josh's game, I'd likely have taken the same chance with A-Q, particularly in a bounty event. Bounties neutralize aggressive players.

Sadly, I had neither one of the two Hammer hands.

I didn't catch much else either, and I went out after deciding to defend my blind with K-10 suited against a SB raise. The SB had K-Q and the flop came K-4-4, and we were off to the races. I finished in the "place" spot in the two-horse race; second place gets the "dingleberry close-up" view of the first-place finisher, y'know.

Very busy times for me. I'm headed down to Caesars Indiana on Friday for some early WSOP Circuit doings this weekend. There are so-o-o-o-o many things I'm needing to blog about but the last couple of weeks have been pretty hectic. Hang in there; my blogging always comes in spurts.

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Good Times, Bad Times

Whereas February had been a really good month for on Stars, March has been the polar opposite to date, so much so that I've fired up alternate sites on occasion just for the change of pace. The start of March was pretty ugly on those sites as well, until a first and a second in a couple of small MTTs at least trimmed the overall losing buy a bit.

Still, it's been a struggle. Here's the epitome of good news / bad news, as occurred in a Bodog turbo SNG I was playing while being bounced on the bubble in last week's Bodonkey. (First time I've made that in a month, by the way.)

The Good News: Making quads in back-to-back hands. I don't remember doing that before in any "normal" poker game.

The Bad News: Still only finishing third in the dang SNG.

Wednesday, March 05, 2008

The Wednesday Blahs

A handful of small setbacks in the online game might have had a bit of an extra explanation --- I woke up overnight and realized I had a small cold coming on. Since I've already had both that lovely flu and a nasty cold in the last few months, I figure this one won't get a chance to do much more than take a mild swipe at me. I also got to the echinacea jug tuit de suite.

Being old and gray and feebleminded, something occurred to me that might or not be accurate. It seems like whenever I'm coming down with something (and don't fully realize it), my play produces horrible results. I think this has happened several times. Anybody ever experience something similar?

I probably picked up the bug at a weekend game where I actually ran well, so I guess by the time I've sneezed my last, at least the cough drops and kleenex will be paid for. Weekend game saw me viciously wielding a short stack and staying alive long enough to sneak into the money, then pick up over two buy-ins in a $1/3 NL game where I was running well against some guys that I knew could not stop calling my value bets, and even though they're not the type to allow themselves to be bluffed often, darned if I didn't manage to buy a couple of pots with air as well.

Today sees the delivery of the new sofa, bought over the weekend at a nearby Wickes Furniture "Going Out of Business" sale. Wickes is one of those regional chains caught in the economic downturn and they were featuring 25% of all furniture and 50% off the decorative stuff, but I settled for a recliner sofa to replace my old "drug dealer" sofa, which had utterly collapsed to the point that springs were poking through the cloth and an exposed bracket on the front was offering occasional rude scrapes to the back of my leg. The back lining was so torn whole cushions could disappear down inside the back of the couch. What time is it? Yep, time to get a new one.

The store on Saturday AM was a mob scene, featuring hundreds of would-be furniture buyers and maybe a half dozen employees who didn't really want to wait on them, since they're all gonna be out of a job soon, anyway. And of course, the store's computer system wasn't operating, so all the credit-card purchases had to be entered manually. Word of the day describing the sales staff: SURLY.

Wickes actually has gone into bankruptcy and is closing all 38 of its stores, including seven in the greater Chicago area. I'd find you a picture of the couch, except Wickes has essentially disabled its online site. It's a decent couch for what I spent but if something breaks on it I'm pretty much kayaking up Pooh River.

Then again, it could have been worse. The older guy who finally sold me my sofa remarked that at a similar store closing in Lake Zurich, perhaps 25 miles away, all the employees but one walked off the job. Now that would've been a fun sale to attend, don't you think?

Monday, March 03, 2008

"Bad Poker Day" Recipe --- Add Chips and Beat(s) Thoroughly

Just follow the easy recipe and you, too, can watch TV for the rest of the night!

1. Turn on computer.

2. Fire up PokerStars.

3. Fire up a turbo to get the brain workin'.

4. Take this beat in the first level of play:



5. Close Stars client.

6. Turn off computer.

Serves... for a good laugh, if nothing else. Last of the chips went in on the turn. Re-buy!!

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Blogroll Update Phase I Completed

Alright, about a hundred dead links have now been toast-ified. Subtraction is always the easy part; adding newer blogs in is the longer part of the work. Haley's Law of Poker Blog Half-lifes applies: If the blog is about someone dropping a few hundred into a site and attempting to become an online poker sensation... that dream's pretty much not gonna happen. The blog's demise rapidly follows that of the bankroll, it seems.

Monday, February 25, 2008

Major Blogroll Update in Progress

And I need to do it for work reasons, too. Anyone with an established blog that I haven't got around to adding in the last several months, now's the time to remind me! :-)

Friday, February 15, 2008

Sometimes 'Random' Hits Too Close

The February 14th shooting at Northern Illinois University was one of those events which I was certainly aware of, but didn't have a connection to, despite its proximity to my current place of residence. Dekalb, which hosts NUI, is a small town about an hour from here out beyond the farthest stretches of Chicago suburbia. I've never even been there in my two-plus years in the area, despite it only being 40 miles or so away.

I was saddened, of course, by the news, but didn't think I had any connection whatsoever to the tragedy. I was wrong.

When I first moved here it was of necessity, as I'd been evicted and out of a job in Milwaukee, and a dear family that really is my family in a lot of ways took me until I began getting back on my feet. There are two kids in the family, a sister and brother, with the sister now a sophomore in college, down at the U. of Illinois in Champaign.

NUI? No connection, I thought, until I came over to the house today to do laundry and arrange for some furniture shopping. I was told that one of the victims, Ryanne Mace, was rather more than an acquaintance of the college-aged daughter; in fact, they'd sat in adjacent orchestra seats for seven years. A couple of reporters following up the massacre even grabbed an old Dundee-Crown yearbook and went to interview teachers and students, who readily identified the daughter here as one of Ryanne's close friends. There were at least a couple of calls from reporters here today, and then we stopped answering the phone.

It all means changes of schedule for the next few days. I cook the occasional meal at the home, and have, ever since I lived under this roof. Today I cooked, since the normal family cook was off to Champaign to fetch the daughter back for the services. Might have to cook more meals or serve as Haley's Taxi in the next few days. That's fine -- happy to do it if it helps out.

Random violence begets deep ripples. Tens, perhaps hundreds of thousands of people are affected by an event such as this. Even dispassionate hermits such as me.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

LOLDonkaments, Too

I haven't played much at all, lately, but when I have, I've been running well. As, for instance:



Amazingly, my Stars balance is now veddy veddy healthy for the piddly stakes I normally play, enough so that I can take a shot or four higher up. This one above was funny. It was my typical Das Boot performance, except this time the damn sub almost made it to dry dock. Short-stacked throughout, I had to suck out with 8-8 against Q-Q just to stay alive roughly halfway through, but from then on I kept getting the chips in with the best cards and having the cards hold up. Made some steals, of course, and leveraged my itty-bitty stack of chips as best I could while players dropped out around me.

I made it the final three, somehow, with less than a tenth of the chips in play, then doubled through twice against one of the others, a nice, but not very skilled, player. (Whaddya expect in a $9.90 tourney?) Suddenly I was heads up with just about 40% of the chips, and we got all the chips in right away, with me having A-K to the leader's A-J. Alas, the string of beats I faded earlier ended right there, as the jack flopped. But I'd been way ahead of the curve anyhow in this one, because you can only dodge the suckouts for so long.

I did a little ego-peeking at officialpokerrankings in recent days, a site I maintain is of marginal use anyway. Since I don't play much on Stars and play small anyway, I usually hang in the 60-65-70% range on the ROI rankings on that site. Therefore, I was curious: What would one good $9.90 final table do?

The answer: All the way to 96%. To which I say, no way. One lucky run in a $9.90, 360-player tourney should not be able to knock one's stats into the top 4% of all players, given that before the event, my ROI for the last 120 days (as that site tracks it) was something like negative two percent. Lies, damned lies, and statistics, all of it.