Saturday, February 06, 2010

The Choppy UB Hand Histories, Part Whatever (Maybe Barry's Histories, Part 2?)

Got an e-mail from KevMath a few minutes ago, along with two that purported to be from Joe Sebok but were instead just porn and/or pharm spam. (I've got Joe's contact stuff anyhow, so that's just sorta funny.) As to why....

In Joe's latest blog, he mentioned how I had posted how choppy the hands were that Barry Greenstein put up on PokerRoad. I examined and resorted some of those hands, and I stated on 2+2, where I posted it, that a lot of hands were missing and promised to paint a clearer picture. I also examined some of the odd outlier HH's and found that they extended the dates a bit, mostly in '04 and '05, though most of the files here remain clustered around Turkey Day '05. Since I hadn't posted them here quite yet, though I was going to, I figured I'd run 'em in quick to stop any mysteries from getting steam. The resorted histories come next, along with a few thoughts at the bottom.

This also shows how multiple cheating accounts were rotated through the tables over time.

The latter part of the code for each file (taken from first entry):
1612888 - table identifier
17144 - start hand
17180 - end hand
[xx] - my count of how many hands were in that HH

HH Sequences:

May 27, 2004 Table: Flushing Cheating Account Present: Starbucs
68720,40018_1612888_17144_17180.txt [37]
-- crazyplayer leaves table and returns six hands later
68720,40018_1612888_17187_17189.txt [3]

... hours later...

May 27, 2004 Table: Flushing Cheating Account Present: NCWolfpac
68720,147524_1612888_17406_17480.txt [75]

June 6, 2004 Table: Flushing Cheating Account Present: Starbucs
68720,40018_1747573_6712_6748.txt [37]

Mar. 25, 2005 Table: Oolong Cheating Account Present: 2yung2fast
68720,147524_5026496_3190_3190.txt [1]
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,147524_5026496_3193_3230.txt [38]

May 3, 2005 Table: Bhipak Cheating Account Present: CravinAA
68720,966687_5415005_1552_1553.txt [2]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,966687_5415005_1555_1555.txt [1]
-- 3 hands missing here
68720,966687_5415005_1559_1561.txt [3]
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,966687_5415005_1564_1565.txt [2]
Hands present this cluster: 8/14

Oct. 7, 2005 Table: Tampa Bay Cheating Account Present: Omyfuknhead
68720,638132_8513886_4502_4502.txt [1]
(doesn’t sit in for this hand, but does in either hand 4503 or 4504)
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,638132_8513886_4505_4509.txt [5]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,638132_8513886_4511_4511.txt [1]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,638132_8513886_4513_4515.txt [3]
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,638132_8513886_4518_4518.txt [1]
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,638132_8513886_4521_4522.txt [2]
Hands present this cluster: 13/23

Oct. 19, 2005 Table: Blundeston Cheating Account Present: Skipmyloo
68720,40018_8513464_43158_43260.txt [103]

Oct. 20, 2005 Table: Bhipak Cheating Account Present: Skipmyloo
68720,40018_9100457_387_476.txt [90]

Nov. 11, 2005 Table: Bhipak Cheating Account Present: Omyfuknhead
68720,638132_9173942_24373_24374.txt [2]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,638132_9173942_24376_24378.txt [3]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,638132_9173942_24380_24381.txt [2]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,638132_9173942_24383_24383.txt [1]
Hands present this cluster: 8/11

… same table, some time later

Nov. 11, 2005 Table: Bhipak Cheating Account Present: Omyfuknhead
68720,638132_9173942_24529_24533.txt [5] (crazyplayer waits at start for the BB)
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,638132_9173942_24536_24539.txt [4]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,638132_9173942_24541_24542.txt [2]
-- 1 hands missing here
68720,638132_9173942_24544_24547.txt [4]
Hands present this cluster: 17/21

Nov. 14, 2005 Table: Fortenza Cheating Account Present: Omyfuknhead
68720,638132_9173956_44930_44931.txt [2]
-- 1 hand not present but irrelevant; crazyplayer posts BB in #44933
68720,638132_9173956_44933_44940.txt [8]
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,638132_9173956_44943_44943.txt [1]
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,638132_9173956_44946_44956.txt [11]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,638132_9173956_44958_44963.txt [6]
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,638132_9173956_44966_44970.txt [5]
-- 4 hands missing here
68720,638132_9173956_44975_44978.txt [4]
-- crazyplayer sits out for a while, on the BB for 44979
x 68720,638132_9173956_44981_44982.txt [2]
-- 1 hand missing here
x 68720,638132_9173956_44984_44989.txt [6]
-- 4 hands missing here; crazyplayer sits back in somewhere in these 4 hands
68720,638132_9173956_44994_44994.txt [1]
-- 10 hands missing here
68720,638132_9173956_45005_45005.txt [1]
-- 3 hands missing here
68720,638132_9173956_45009_45011.txt [3]
-- 5 hands missing here
68720,638132_9173956_45017_45017.txt [1]
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,638132_9173956_45020_45021.txt [2]
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,638132_9173956_45024_45026.txt [3]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,638132_9173956_45028_45029.txt [2]
Hands present this cluster: 58/100

Nov. 17, 2005 Table: Fortenza Cheating Account Present: Skipmyloo
(no action against cheating account here)
68720,40018_9173956_51543_51543.txt [1]

Nov. 22, 2005 Table: Bhipak Cheating Account Present: Crackcorn55
68720,966687_9173942_38994_38996.txt [3]
-- 4 hands missing here
68720,966687_9173942_39001_39003.txt [3]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,966687_9173942_39005_39008.txt [4]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,966687_9173942_39010_39013.txt [3]
-- 4 hands missing here
68720,966687_9173942_39018_39019.txt [2]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,966687_9173942_39021_39021.txt [1]
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,966687_9173942_39024_39025.txt [2]
Hands present this cluster: 18/31

Nov. 26, 2005 Table: Fortenza Cheating Account Present: snowball
68720,147524_9173956_67065_67202.txt [138]

... later that day...

Nov. 26, 2005 Table: Fortenza Cheating Account Present: Ticketless
68720,638132_9173956_66782_66785.txt [4]
-- 1 hand missing here, and that one is where crazyplayer sits in and posts BB
68720,638132_9173956_66787_66788.txt [2]
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,638132_9173956_66791_66795.txt [5]
-- 3 hands missing here
68720,638132_9173956_66799_66804.txt [6]
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,638132_9173956_66807_66815.txt [9]
-- 3 hands missing here
68720,638132_9173956_66819_66819.txt [1]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,638132_9173956_66821_66824.txt [4]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,638132_9173956_66826_66826.txt [1]
-- 7 hands missing here
68720,638132_9173956_66834_66856.txt [23]
(notable table at the end, with Ozzy 87, durrrr and Mahatma also among those present)
Hands present this cluster: 55/75

Nov. 27, 2005 Table: Bhipak Cheating Account Present: Beeeemer
68720,40018_9173942_43575_43597.txt [23]

Dec. 6, 2005 Table: Fortenza Cheating Account Present: 63vette
68720,445519_9973341_3657_3661.txt [5]
(crazyplayer sits out for a hand here)
68720,445519_9973341_3663_3666.txt [4]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3668_3668.txt [3]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3670_3671.txt [2]
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3674_3675.txt [2]
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3678_3679.txt [2]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3681_3682.txt [2]
-- 5 hands missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3688_3689.txt [2]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3691_3691.txt [1]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3693_3696.txt [4]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3698_3699.txt [2]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3701_3706.txt [6]
-- 13 hands missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3719_3721.txt [3]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3723_3723.txt [1]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3725_3728.txt [4]
-- 3 hands missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3732_3732.txt [1]
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3735_3736.txt [2]
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3739_3740.txt [2]
-- 4 hands missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3745_3748.txt [4]
-- 4 hands missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3753_3760.txt [8]
-- 2 hands missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3763_3766.txt [3]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3768_3768.txt [1]
-- 1 hand missing here
68720,445519_9973341_3770_3772.txt [3]
-- s/b more hands present / both players still active at table
Hands present this cluster: 69/115

Dec. 30, 2005 Table: Owen Sound Cheating Account Present: Beeeemer
68720,40018_10339613_28578_28620.txt [43]

Jan. 1, 2006 Table: Owen Sound Cheating Account Present: snowball
68720,147524_10339613_31834_31868.txt [43]

Jan. 3, 2006 Table: Owen Sound Cheating Account Present: Beeeemer
(sits in as crazyplayer leaves, no action between accounts)
68720,40018_10339613_37627_37627.txt [1]

Jan. 4, 2006 Table: Waterbury Cheating Account Present: snowball
68720,147524_10341187_9585_9656.txt [72]

Now, a few things to note. Joe says he contacted UB to check on these gaps, which are clearly evident, and their responses was: "Transactions that have no monitory value or financial impact on the hand have not been considered. Transactions types like sitting at a table or balance that have no wagering implications on the hand have been excluded. All other transactions types have been considered."

Well, that's wrong. Call this "just for quibbles," but I can show plenty of cases in the interrupted hand sequences where things such as just "sitting at the table" or "having no wagering implications" have occurred and have been reported. (Properly, I might add.) Now, while my true belief is that UB hired three Craigslist interns to work on these hand histories and then gave each a single, contradictory set of oral instructions for processing them, it points to something else.

I like Joe. I like Barry, too. But I'm sick of seeing Joe run like a puppydog to UB management and watching him spew out whatever they tell him, and we're supposed to take it all like the tablets Moses brought down from Mt. Sinai. Once Joe signed on to take UB's bucks, he does not and will not ever have that cachet.

There is plenty of information still to be had from Barry's hand histories, even if some of it is information by omission. By the way, these might be Mimi Tran's histories, as he's now publicly allowed in that lengthy 2+2 thread that he opened the "crazyplayer" account for Mimi back in '03 or '04. That stuff was legit back then and I have no problem with it, nor does it affect what I'm working on, other then it deflates my theory that Barry in specifically might have been getting a break from the cheater(s), who might have recognized his account.

Contrary to what one poster in that thread conjectured, I don't try to discard facts that don't fit my theories, so in this case it makes it more likely that this "crazyplayer" account was a fortunate victim, to coin an opportune phrase. See, I noticed something in the hands played by the cheater in the single longest session among Barry/Mimi's histories, a run of over 100 hands. Early on, the cheating accounting felted itself for a very short stack (about $2,500 each time) after playing hands in a bizarre way.

By bizarre I meant that the hands made no sense, collectively, if viewed under the assumption that the cheater could not see the hole cards of its opponents. But it was bizarre times two: The same hands also made no sense if one assumed that the cheating account could see the opponents' hole cards, either.

I tried to explain on 2+2 that it looked like this was an example of what I called "Better Cheating 202," where the account was playing horribly and quite illogically, very uberfishy in nature, but doing so only early on in the session. Meanwhile, of course, the overall stack sizes were growing. After posting three of these hands in that thread and enduring the expected "this hand means nothing" comments, I gave it up. I didn't feel like wasting more of my time on the 30% of the readers who knew where I was going with it by wading through the 70% of 2+2 readers who think that "tl;dr" is not only witty, but deep.

But here's what happened, later in this session. The cheating account got mixed up in one of those all-chips-must-go-in hands against Barry/Mimi's account, and doubled up to around $5,000 for the first time. From that point forward, the account pulled off several of those impossible bluffs we saw in the infamous "potripper" series as animated by PokerXFactor, where one could watch the hands as a series and realize that obvious cheating was occurring.

Here, the cheating was seemingly done by building a fishy cover, striking quick for a couple or three quick bluffs, then existing the table with $32,000 or so, a neat hour's profit despite the $10,000 or $12,500 in short-stack buy-ins. Do this tens of thousands of times over several years, rotating in dozens of different accounts, and you have a much higher level of organized cheating. But I haven't bothered to post the rest of those histories on 2+2, because it's just a handful of hands -- and a small handful of hands can fit a theory, but IT PROVES NOTHING.

Still, I'm pretty sure that's how they got away with it for so long.

Now, back to that jigsaw puzzle of hand histories. Joe wants to believe that all hands were excluded that were irrelevant to the action, because UB says so. Maybe that's true, too, but I can sure look at the dropoff and resumption points, check the seats and dollar amounts, and see if that's true. I've been planning to do that for several weeks now and haven't gotten around to it, since doing things like trying to find a steady job have taken greater preference.

Still, if Joe's right, I'll confirm it one of these weeks, and if Joe's wrong, I'll put up the correct information. But one thing I will never do is accept at face value supposed revelatory statements issued through UB's handpicked spokesman. UB has lied too much to give them a free pass in such matters.

Barry's right in not wanting Joe to be taking so much irrelevant heat, and there are tons of people slagging Joe for no good reason at all. However, Joe put himself in that spot, for his own reasons. UB can never be fully redeemed until the full story of the scandal is revealed, and it's not sufficient for it to be leaked in bits and pieces through the chosen one. UB, however, has known no other way than to try to manipulate in the shadows; they just don't understand that $22 million -- not counting the rumored amounts stolen from (and ingeniously laundered) from high-stakes live-game pros -- is just too much money. When you're talking $25 million, someone has to burn... and eventually, someone always does. Pressure seeks its own release.

The shame of it all is that the KGC had its chance to step into the spotlight here, and they blew it. They've complained that they have not been taken seriously by other regulatory bodies, and yet when they could have seized the moment, they simply could not man up and do it. More's the pity.

1 comment:

Anthony said...

Another excellent post on the UB shenanigans. The bottom line I feel on this is that as you put it UB has lied to much. We need a clear concise explanation as to what happened and how it happened. UB are not giving this. Some of the stick Joe is getting is unfounded but by taking the $ from UB he left himself open to this. If he can help get us such an explanation then more power to him and we the poker minions of the world can rest easy. If this happened in the high stakes games though is there no one out there even the slightest bit worried that such a well organised cheating ring would not have targeted every level? Its much easier to get away with donk calls at 1/2 than it is at 100/200. I dont think we'll ever hear the true depths of the cheating at UB and my account has never been touched since the first moment i found there were "Superuser" accounts .. why call them "superuser" as well why not just call them cheat accounts? Having read Mike Mattusow's book recently and he seems pretty p***ed in it about the UB cheating scandal of course he doesnt point too many obvious fingers but he does say some pretty interesting stuff about 1 former World Champion. Anyway Glad to see your continuing the digging haley .. keep up the good work.